Lesson 2: Understanding Risk & the Users and Build Partnerships


In this lesson, we will explore elements of the overall design and preparatory process required to successfully implement an impact-based forecasting (IBF) and warning service. IBF services are largely user-driven where users and their needs are identified through ongoing partnerships and collaboration. Impact-based forecasting requires the linking of forecasts with vulnerability and exposure information, i.e. inclusion of risk assessment, a unique element of this approach. As part of risk assessment, specific impacts, their level of severity, and likelihood of occurrence, should also be considered.

Learning Objectives 

The objective of this module is to:  

  • Detail out the users of impact-based forecasting service and their needs in relation to IBF service.
  • Present the common engagement strategies used to collaborate and build partnerships with stakeholders required for the co-development of an IBF service
  • Provide  an overview of process related to assessment of  risk and identify specific impacts, their level and likelihood

Short Description

In this video Catalina Jaime explains the building blocks for impact-based forecasting; building partnerships, identifying users and their needs and assessing risk and impacts. Duration of the video: 12 minutes

If you complete watching the video lecture, you will unlock access to the quiz and the next level.

Key resources:

Part of building out your facilitator’s tool kit is assembling your list of favourite sites and sources for games and activities. Whether in print or online, below you will find some sources.

1. Co-production in African weather and climate services

This manual has devised six building blocks of co-production approaches, drawing together from learning

from several recent programmes including WISER, BRACED and FCFA.

You can specifically investigate the chapter 2.4 to know more about building blocks and principles of co-production.

2. Engage your Stakeholders in FbF

This is the second chapter of forecast-based financing manual that provides guidance on how to engage relevant government institutions in the development of the FbF system.

3. FbF Trigger Methodology

This is one of the chapters of forecast-based financing (FbF) manual, that outlines the design process of an impact-based forecasting model to be used to define forecast-based financing (FbF) triggers. It is meant to support stakeholders involved in developing triggers and provides step-by-step instructions and examples on how to do this.