Lesson 3: Production of Impact-based Forecasting Products


This lesson is about the tools and technologies used to generate impact-based forecast products. The lesson specifically discusses bringing risk and impact assessment together in the form of matrices and risk maps. The key considerations when producing impact-based forecasts and warnings together with the barriers and enablers for the successful IBF production are explained here.

Learning Objectives 

In this session you will: 

The objective of this module is to:

  • Explain the barriers and enablers together with key considerations in the development of impact-based forecasts and warnings.
  • Explain how NHMS produce forecasts which contribute to impact based warning products
  • List/differentiate between the different methods of displaying impact-based forecast warning products (i.e. risk matrices and risk maps)

Short Description

Impact-based forecasts and warnings should be produced as simply and efficiently as possible. In this video, you will hear how this can be done ensuring the forecasts and warnings remain fit for purpose. Duration of this video: 24 min

If you complete watching the video lecture, you will unlock access to the quiz and the next level.

Key resources:

1. UK National Severe Weather Warning Matrix

This video shows the UK NationalSevere Weather Warning Service (NSWWS) in action. Through a case study, this video, explains the warnings matrix used in the NSWWS, showing how this is related to the likelihood and impact of a weather event, and highlights that it is important to not just use the warning colour alone as an indication of potential impact. It shows how the NSWWS matrix and warnings can be useful tool for making critical decisions.

2.The InaSAFE FbA Platform

InaSAFE Forecast Based Action dashboard is a first prototype of a flood impact-based forecast dashboard to trigger early action.

3. 510 Global Impact Forecast models 

Here you can look into impact forecast models developed by 510 Global for different hazards, which serves as trigger model for forecast-based financing projects and programs.