Overview
The introductory lesson lays the groundwork for the course. It provides some foundational principles of impact-based forecasting (IBF) and highlights its relevance and context for anticipatory actions. This module explains why hydrometeorological forecasters, humanitarian agencies, and disaster management stakeholders, by engaging in collaborative impact-based forecasting processes, can benefit from significant reduction in disaster risk and impacts.
Objectives
- Describe key concepts and principles of an impact-based forecasting approach
- Differentiate between impact-based forecasts and traditional threshold-based forecasts and warnings
- Explain the rationale for impact-based forecasting (IBF) and warnings in the current situation of increased intensity of climate and weather events and their impacts
- Relate the impact-based forecasting approach to anticipatory humanitarian action, particularly the forecast-based financing mechanism
Short Description
In this video Madhab Uprety introduces impact-based forecasting and explains how this approach offers improvements over traditional weather warnings in helping to inform the decision making process for early actions. Duration of video: 12 minutes
If you complete watching the video lecture, you will unlock access to the quiz and the next level.
Key resources:
Launched in September 2020 this is a practical guide that lays out steps and tools to anticipate impacts and implement early actions. This guide is designed with, and for, people working in impact-based forecasting, early warning, and early action. The entire course lesson of this MOOC has been designed and developed based on the methodology set out by this guide.
2. Using Multi-hazard, Impact-based Forecast and Warning Service
Using a heavy rain situation in Barbados, this video demonstrates the use of Multi-hazard, Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services.
WMO Guidelines on Multi-Hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Service
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), guidelines on Multi-Hazard Impact Based Forecast and Warning Services, are based on the premise that it is no longer enough to provide a good forecast or warning of what the weather will BE. People need information on what the weather might DO, and how to ensure their safety and protect their property.. The guidelines are currently being updated and the new edition will embrace the collective wisdom and lessons learned of participants and their organizations from a 2019 symposium to strengthen the provision of “expert Impact-Based Forecast and Warning Services oriented towards the protection of life, livelihood and property, focused on those who are most vulnerable in society, and fashioned in a clear and actionable manner.” Chapter 1 of this guideline provides rationale for the moving towards impact-based forecasting through real case examples on “Why do good weather forecasts result in a poor response?”
Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems: A Checklist
Outcome of the first Multi-hazard Early Warning Conference, this checklist, which is structured around the four key elements of early warning systems, aims to be a simple list of the main components and actions to which national governments, community organizations and partners within and across all sectors can refer when developing or evaluating early warning systems.
Forecast-based Financing (FbF) is a programme that enables access to humanitarian funding for early action based on in-depth forecast information and risk analysis. The goal of FbF is to anticipate disasters, prevent their impact, if possible, and reduce human suffering and losses.
To learn more about the programme, visit www.forecast-based-financing.org
What is Forecast-based Financing?
Forecast-based Financing (FbF) is a programme that enables access to humanitarian funding for early action based on in-depth forecast information and risk analysis. The goal of FbF is to anticipate disasters, prevent their impact, if possible, and reduce human suffering and losses.
To learn more about the programme, visit www.forecast-based-financing.org
